Democrats Ahead in New Mexico Senate Race

Apr 25, 2012

A recent poll by Public Policy Polling shows incumbent Representative Martin Heinrich leading in the race for retiring Senator Jeff Bingaman's seat.  

Our newest poll finds Martin Heinrich leading Heather Wilson 48-43 and Hector Balderas with a 44-43 advantage. Both match ups have seen only a small change from when PPP polled the state in December. At that time Heinrich led Wilson 47-40 and Balderas and Wilson were knotted at 43%.

PPP found Republican Heather Wilson remaining competitive even though her showing with independent voters isn't as dramatic as independent voter support for Republican Governor Susana Martinez in 2010.

[Wilson's] favorability with them [independent voters] is 36/45, worse than her overall spread of 40/45, and she basically ties both Democrats with them. She's up 37-34 on Balderas, but down 40-37 to Heinrich. For a Republican to win New Mexico pretty much requires not just winning independents, but winning them by a healthy margin.